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شهد الملف السوري، في الآونة الأخيرة، تطوراتٍ ملحوظة، سياسية وعسكرية، وذلك بعد الهدوء النسبي الذي ساد جبهات القتال في مناطق إدلب المشمولة باتفاق الرئيسين، الروسي فلاديمير بوتين والتركي رجب طيب أردوغان، الموقع في الخامس من مارس/ آذار الماضي، والذي استبعدت منه إيران، وأفضى إلى تعزيز الوجود العسكري التركي في مناطق الشمال السوري. وشملت تلك التطورات رسائل روسية وزيارات واتصالات لمسؤولين في الدول الثلاث المنخرطة في مسار أستانة، بدأت بزيارة وزير الدفاع الروسي، سيرغي شوينغو، دمشق، التي أراد ساسة موسكو من خلالها توجيه رسالة إلى نظام الأسد تؤكد ضرورة عدم خرقه الاتفاق الذي وقعه بوتين وأردوغان، وعدم التصعيد العسكري في إدلب أو استهداف القوات التركية فيها، ما يعني أن ساسة الكرملين أفهموا نظام الأسد أنهم لن يضحّوا بعلاقات بلادهم الواسعة مع تركيا من أجل تنفيذ رغباته.وكانت لافتة الحملة الفاضحة وغير المسبوقة التي شنتها أوساط مقرّبة من الكرملين على نظام الأسد، وتناولت فساده وضعفه وعدم أهليته، وهي أمور يعرفها الساسة الروس جيداً، لكنهم أرادوا نشرها في هذا التوقيت، كي يوجهوا رسائل سياسية غير مباشرة إلى الولايات المتحدة والغرب، وأخرى إلى النظام السوري وحليفه نظام الملالي الإيراني في هذه المرحلة التي تشهد متغيرات كثيرة في ظل جائحة كورونا وتبعاتها على الاقتصاد العالمي، خصوصا على الاقتصاد الروسي الذي تأثر كثيراً بالحرب النفطية مع السعودية، تلتها ضربات الانخفاض الكبير في أسعار بيع النفط عالمياً.
وإذا كانت الحملة الروسية على نظام الأسد تريد أن تظهر عدم تحمّل ساسة الكرملين مزيدا من
“لافتة الحملة غير المسبوقة التي شنتها أوساط مقرّبة من الكرملين على نظام الأسد” |
التكاليف في سبيل نظام الأسد، خصوصا وأنها لم تجن ثماراً على المستوى السياسي، ولم تحقق ما كانت تطمح إليه الشركات الروسية اقتصادياً، إلا أنها لن تؤثر على النظام بشكل مباشر في هذه المرحلة، ربما غايتها التمهيد لمرحلة مقبلة، خصوصا أن هدف الرسالة منها قد تحقق حيال فضح فساد مراكز قوى معنية، تعود إلى أسماء الأسد وأقربائها، والصراع الاقتصادي ما بين متنفذي عائلتي الأسد ومخلوف. ولكن الأهم هو عدم الالتفات إلى رغبة النظام الإيراني في التصعيد العسكري، وتحجيم دوره في سورية، بما يؤدي إلى تقييد وجود المليشيات الطائفية التابعة له، وإبعادها عن المناطق القريبة من الحدود “الإسرائيلية”.
ويدرك ساسة النظام الإيراني أن الحملة الروسية على النظام في دمشق قد لا تكون مجرد سحابة صيف، بل ستترتب عليها متغيرات، والأهم أنهم يدركون أيضاً أنهم مستهدفون في سورية، ولذلك أوفدوا وزير الخارجية، محمد جواد ظريف، إلى دمشق، كي يظهروا موقفهم الداعم للنظام، وأنهم لن يتراجعوا عنه، لأن أي تراجع أو انكفاء إيراني سيفضي إلى ترنّح النظام واهتزازه داخلياً، خصوصا أنه يواجه تبعات كبيرة وثقيلة، نتيجة جائحة كورونا التي تضرب إيران، فضلاً عن تبعات العقوبات الاقتصادية الأميركية المفروضة عليها، وبالتالي يشكل الموقف الروسي من التغلغل الإيراني في سورية عامل ضغط إضافي على النظام الإيراني. لكن، وعلى الرغم من كل ما يتعرّض له النظام المذكور، سواء في الداخل أو الخارج، إلا أنه لا يريد أن يظهر ضعفه الذي سينقص من هيبته، خصوصا أن وجوده المليشياوي تلقى ضرباتٍ قوية في كلّ من سورية والعراق، الأمر الذي يشي بأن هذا الوجود يمرّ بأصعب لحظاته، وأن الشبكة العنكبوتية التي بناها النظام بدأت تضعف، حيث باتت مليشياته في سورية تتعرّض لضربات إسرئيلية عديدة ومتكررة، من دون رد فعل يُذكر.
ويبدو أن التفاهمات الروسية الإسرائيلية جعلت ساسة الكرملين يصمتون عن الاستهدافات والهجمات الإسرائيلية المتكرّرة على حزب الله اللبناني والمواقع التابعة للمليشيات الإيرانية، ولا يحرّكون ساكناً، وبات جنرالات إسرائيل يتحدّثون عن الانتقال إلى مرحلة طرد الوجود الإيراني من سورية، لذلك ليس مصادفة أن يعلن وزير الحرب الإسرائيلي، نفتالي بنيت، “نحن لا نواصل لجم نشاطات التموضع الإيراني في سورية فحسب؛ بل انتقلنا بشكل حاد من اللجم إلى الطرد، أقصد طرد إيران من سورية”. ويُفهم من الصمت الروسي أن ساسة موسكو لا مانع لديهم لما تقوم به إسرائيل، وفق تفاهمات أُبرمت بين الطرفين.
غير أن ساسة موسكو الذين صرفوا جهودا سياسية وإمكانات عسكرية وموارد مادية كثيرة في
“جنرالات إسرائيل يتحدّثون عن الانتقال إلى مرحلة طرد الوجود الإيراني من سورية” |
سبيل تحقيق مصالحهم التي وجدودها في تمكين نظام الأسد من استرجاع سيطرته على مساحات واسعة من سورية، يريدون استثمارها سياسياً، عبر التفاهم مع القوى الفاعلة في المجتمع الدولي، وهذا لن يتحقق إلا بضرورة إحداث تغييرات عميقة في بنية النظام السياسي والاقتصادي في سورية، وذلك عبر إيجاد سبيل للتخلّص من الأسد، وهو أمرٌ يعيه ساسة موسكو جيداً.
ولن يتحقق أي تفاهم بشأن حل سياسي في سورية، يريد الروس التوصل إليه مع الولايات المتحدة ودول الغرب عموماً، وإشراك دول إقليمية فيه، وخصوصا تركيا، في ظل ترك الأمور في سورية كما هي عليه، لأنه ببساطة سيلاقي رفضاً دولياً واسعاً، حيث إن النظام الذي ارتكب جرائم كثيرة، وأودى بسورية والسوريين نحو الكارثة، لن يتعامل معه المجتمع الدولي وكأن شيئاً لم يكن، حسبما تريد موسكو، ولذلك عليها تحمّل التبعات، وإيجاد مخرج مقبول يتمثل بالتخلص من الأسد.
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